Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x682c…17ae
world · 143 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,764 +98%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$130 · open −$848
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,992
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$848
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions475
Markets (closed)5 / 143
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3500.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 475 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $79 $83 +$4 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 55¢ 81¢ $47 $70 +$23 (+48%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 56¢ 76¢ $48 $65 +$17 (+35%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Yes 57¢ 92¢ $34 $55 +$20 (+60%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 36¢ 81¢ $22 $50 +$28 (+127%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $62 $47 −$16 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $47 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $53 $43 −$10 (-19%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $40 −$14 (-26%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 12¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $40 −$15 (-28%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+7%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $32 $37 +$4 (+14%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $28 $36 +$8 (+29%)
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $0 +$81 +342951%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $70 +$5 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $8 +$20 +248%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 12 $28 +$24 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$746
world 37% −$20
finance 6% −$27
tech 3% +$6
politics 2% −$2
sports 2% +$8
economics 1% −$21
crypto 1% +$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $4 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $6 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $4 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $1 1m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $2 1m
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $5 1m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 25¢ $9 1m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 2m
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $15 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $11 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $4 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $6 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $4 4m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+414.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +468.6% +414.4% 100% 60% +28.0%
≤30d 5 +468.6% +414.4% 100% 60% +28.0%
≤90d 5 +468.6% +414.4% 100% 60% +28.0%
all 5 +468.6% +414.4% 100% 60% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3500.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +414.4% 60% +28.0%
10% ← realistic here +365.2% 60% +15.8%
15% +320.2% 60% +4.6%
20% +279.0% 60% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,992.43 · official $6,994.86 (match) · 3500 history records