Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x682c…ef07 sports 377 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$269 (+0%) realized +$257 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%188W / 186L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,101
other 2% −$931
politics 1% −$1,134
crypto 1% −$149
world 0% +$144
culture 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 33% -42.8%
≤90d 71 -25.8% -32.8% 35% 35% -29.6%
all 374 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 43% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 37% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 33% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 26% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$240 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$257
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses188 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions2
Markets (closed)374 / 377
History coverage599d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $330 $332 +$2 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Over 66¢ 69¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $398 −$391 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $196 −$194 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $302 −$299 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $304 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $405 +$202 +50%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $123 −$122 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $199 +$107 +54%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $406 −$400 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $404 +$224 +55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $152 −$149 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $92 +$60 +66%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $254 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $113 +$436 +387%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $154 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $59 −$58 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $139 +$186 +134%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $314 +$203 +65%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $55 −$54 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $397 −$390 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) May 24 $260 −$255 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $406 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $405 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $347 +$492 +142%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $377 +$651 +172%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $300 −$295 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $483 +$325 +67%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $356 −$350 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $506 +$370 +73%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $620 −$615 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $100 −$97 -97%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $330 −$323 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 02 $150 −$147 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Map 1 Winner Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 02 $200 −$198 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 02 $300 −$295 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Rockets (-17.5) Apr 01 $210 −$207 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $200 +$377 +188%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Apr 01 $600 +$190 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Apr 01 $200 −$199 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $400 +$331 +83%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $310 +$469 +151%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5 Apr 01 $200 −$195 -98%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $350 −$344 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Mar 31 $220 +$192 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $202 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 68¢ $168 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $505 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5 BUY 21¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 44¢ $398 15d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $196 15d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 46¢ $203 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 60¢ $302 26d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 50¢ $304 26d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $607 26d
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 51¢ $123 26d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 66¢ $405 26d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $306 26d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $406 26d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $628 26d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 64¢ $199 26d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $404 26d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 35¢ $152 28d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Aurora 99¢ $152 28d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 59¢ $92 28d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $203 28d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 45¢ $254 28d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL GLYPH 100¢ $495 28d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL GLYPH 99¢ $54 28d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 20¢ $113 28d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY Dplus KIA 22¢ $154 29d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner BUY Aurora 63¢ $59 29d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $325 29d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 42¢ $139 30d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 9¢ $55 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.90 · official $592.93 · 710 history records