Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x682d…4cd6 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$444 (+2%) realized +$1,093 · open −$649
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%107W / 265L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day134.3pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6,503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$2,336
sports 29% +$325
finance 17% −$305
world 15% −$442
culture 4% +$46
crypto 2% −$13
weather 0% +$18
tech 0% −$14
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 -2.6% -11.9% 22% 20% -70.4%
≤30d 372 +8.9% -1.5% 29% 26% -50.6%
≤90d 372 +8.9% -1.5% 29% 26% -50.6%
all 372 +8.9% -1.5% 29% 26% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 26% -50.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 24% -55.4%
15% -19.5% 22% -59.7%
20% -27.4% 19% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$64 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$6,503
Realized+$1,093
Unrealized−$649
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses107 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions37
Markets (closed)372 / 171
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day134.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 75¢ 91¢ $740 $897 +$157 (+21%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 48¢ 81¢ $517 $868 +$351 (+68%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $912 $858 −$54 (-6%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $630 $727 +$98 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 55¢ $595 $545 −$50 (-8%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $450 $443 −$7 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $206 $435 +$229 (+111%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $386 $395 +$9 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 51¢ 86¢ $102 $171 +$69 (+68%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $73 $142 +$70 (+96%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $473 $118 −$355 (-75%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 41¢ 12¢ $368 $113 −$256 (-69%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $104 $98 −$7 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 16¢ $300 $91 −$209 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 70¢ $75 $70 −$4 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 12¢ $243 $69 −$175 (-72%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 10¢ $214 $66 −$147 (-69%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 60¢ $69 $60 −$8 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $81 $55 −$26 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 47¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $171 $43 −$129 (-75%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $52 $42 −$10 (-18%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 56¢ 16¢ $113 $33 −$80 (-71%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 89¢ 92¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $28 $21 −$8 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 317 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 18 $2 +$145 +7250%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 18 $3 +$2 +59%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April Jun 18 $3 +$4 +135%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? Jun 18 $2 +$9 +380%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April Jun 18 $1 +$36 +3573%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Jun 18 $6 −$194 -3098%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 30? Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $603 −$699 -116%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 −$118 -1541%
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $116 −$116 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in April? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1? Jun 18 $246 −$246 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,313 −$1,313 -100%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Maryville University (BO3) - North Ame Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs Team Solid - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +58%
LoL: NRG Esports vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $93 −$29 -31%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $3 +$5 +207%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 18 $3 +$6 +194%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? Jun 18 $7 +$101 +1510%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 4? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 30? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit Jun 18 $24 −$17 -71%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $16 −$3 -17%
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in April? Jun 18 $21 −$6 -28%
LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$1 -24%
LoL: Citadel Gaming vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $44 −$21 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 4? Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April? Jun 18 $36 −$37 -104%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$71 -90%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs Team Solid - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 +$7 +288%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -75%
LoL: LOS vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? SELL No 92¢ $69 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $146 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $110 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $114 1h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 86¢ $10 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 0¢ $2 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 0¢ $4 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 0¢ $0 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 0¢ $0 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 1¢ $7 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 1¢ $8 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 1¢ $5 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 1¢ $5 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 9¢ $1 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 8¢ $2 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 9¢ $4 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $6 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 8¢ $4 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $1 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $4 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $8 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $10 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL No 80¢ $80 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 52¢ $34 4h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 86¢ $12 5h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $44 5h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $44 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,502.61 · official $6,502.55 (match) · 3500 history records