Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6833…9c1e other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 20% −$15
politics 10% −$7
economics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$5
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage128d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $394 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $470 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $292 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $639 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $389 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $398 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $343 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $544 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $188 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 33m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 7h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 10h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 11h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 15h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 15h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $54 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $54 21h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 25h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 28h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 29h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 32h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 34h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 34h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 42h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1295 history records