Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

68 0x6836…5f68 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$70 (+27%) realized +$72 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%3W / 7L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day9.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit23%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+21.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+34.2%	+21.4%	30%	30%	+51.9%
≤30d	10	+34.2%	+21.4%	30%	30%	+51.9%
≤90d	10	+34.2%	+21.4%	30%	30%	+51.9%
all	10	+34.2%	+21.4%	30%	30%	+51.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.4%	30%	+51.9%
10%	+9.8%	30%	+37.4%
15%	-0.8%	30%	+24.1%
20%	-10.5%	30%	+11.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$8 · ×7.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized+$72

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses3 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)10 / 13

History coverage2d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day9.3

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$52	$49	−$3 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$29	$30	+$1 (+5%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	18¢	15¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$12	+$35	+285%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$56	+$86	+155%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals	Jun 26	$42	−$3	-7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets	Jun 25	$24	−$24	-100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$51	+510%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$9	−$9	-100%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5)	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$4	21m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$25	27m
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals	SELL No	77¢	$39	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	29¢	$24	2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	12¢	$5	2h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals	BUY No	82¢	$42	3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	51¢	$32	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$7	13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	16¢	$5	15h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$43	25h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets	BUY New York Mets	10¢	$7	33h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets	BUY New York Mets	10¢	$1	33h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets	BUY New York Mets	10¢	$1	33h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets	BUY New York Mets	10¢	$1	33h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets	BUY New York Mets	53¢	$14	34h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	35h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	35h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	30¢	$9	38h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5)	BUY Colombia	6¢	$5	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.50 · official $83.65 (match) · 31 history records