Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6836…2a8a world 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$39
politics 25% −$34
other 17% −$18
crypto 2% −$1
sports 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 11 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 11 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -11.9%
all 11 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 0% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 0% -20.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.0%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$9 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $399 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $401 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $403 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $406 −$2 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $444 −$35 -8%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 24 $448 −$2 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $482 −$32 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $567 −$16 -3%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $66 −$6 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $68 −$2 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $70 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $398 4m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $399 4m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $401 4m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $401 5m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $403 5m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $403 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $404 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $406 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $409 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $444 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 99¢ $446 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 100¢ $448 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $450 3h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $482 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $484 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $498 6h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $60 15h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $66 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $66 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $68 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $68 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $70 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 72¢ $68 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $70 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records