Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
68 0x6837…15e1 other 203 markets active 17d ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$48,001 (+61%) realized +$48,001 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%79W / 130L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$88
14 days+$431
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$32,345
culture 20% +$6,417
crypto 8% +$1,202
sports 8% +$8,776
tech 4% −$2,532
politics 3% −$2,129
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -75.8% -78.1% 17% 17% -10.6%
≤90d 50 +25.0% +13.1% 30% 20% +116.7%
all 209 +18.1% +6.8% 38% 30% +41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 30% +41.9%
10% -3.4% 25% +28.3%
15% -12.7% 22% +15.9%
20% -21.3% 20% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +139% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$911 vs −$216 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48,001
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses79 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 203
History coverage542d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "Age of Attraction" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "The Tiktok Killer" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "Dynasty: The Murdochs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $9 −$14 -152%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $769 +$519 +68%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 29 $38 −$37 -97%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $72 +$17 +23%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a May 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this May 17 $376 −$374 -99%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this wee May 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 12 $84 −$64 -76%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top US Netflix show this week May 05 $138 +$62 +45%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this May 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 04 $2,003 −$1,983 -99%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 03 $503 −$496 -99%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 03 $335 −$335 -100%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 02 $7 −$5 -77%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 29 $824 +$15,360 +1865%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Apr 22 $91 +$9 +10%
Will "Thrash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Apr 22 $186 +$14 +8%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this wee Apr 22 $77 −$6 -7%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the #2 global Netflix show this Apr 22 $303 −$24 -8%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top global Netflix show this Apr 22 $838 −$188 -22%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "IF" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Apr 15 $1,795 +$44 +2%
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this Apr 15 $573 −$105 -18%
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Thrash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Apr 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Apr 12 $306 −$306 -100%
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this Apr 12 $804 −$804 -100%
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 07 $145 −$61 -42%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top glob Apr 07 $366 +$34 +9%
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? Apr 07 $751 +$63 +8%
Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this w Apr 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top US N Apr 06 $926 −$866 -93%
Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will "Age of Attraction: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this wee Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 25 $132 +$46 +35%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Mar 25 $176 +$243 +138%
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie th Mar 25 $1,809 +$4,890 +270%
Will "Nobody 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Mar 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week Mar 17 $350 +$62 +18%
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Mar 17 $57 +$1,134 +2002%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 56¢ $186 16d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 52¢ $355 16d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 16d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 16d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 42¢ $39 16d
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 16d
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17d
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week BUY Yes 8¢ $18 17d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 7¢ $94 17d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No 3¢ $8 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No 3¢ $1 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2630 history records