Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x683a…3b03 other 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,387 (+4%) realized +$11,449 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%137W / 136L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$990per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$562est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,508
7 days+$1,092
14 days+$3,940
30 days+$5,745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$11,545
sports 29% +$1,447
world 3% −$671
politics 3% +$178
crypto 1% −$1,339
tech 1% +$745
culture 1% +$291
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +19.0% +7.6% 47% 47% +1.7%
≤30d 53 +21.8% +10.2% 53% 45% +8.5%
≤90d 96 +18.5% +7.2% 47% 43% +0.9%
all 273 +4.6% -5.4% 50% 42% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 42% -5.1%
10% -14.4% 36% -14.2%
15% -22.7% 29% -22.5%
20% -30.3% 23% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$391 vs −$308 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$11,449
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses137 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions2
Markets (closed)273 / 279
History coverage690d
Avg bet$990
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 44¢ $220 $151 −$69 (-32%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 67¢ 77¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $304 −$30 -10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $203 +$169 +83%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 21 $205 +$931 +454%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $768 +$232 +30%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $295 +$205 +69%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $514 −$179 -35%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $202 −$75 -37%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $407 −$250 -61%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 19 $611 −$78 -13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $204 −$92 -45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $141 −$32 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$309 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $250 −$192 -77%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $263 −$258 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $315 +$305 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $153 +$377 +246%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 +$41 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $360 +$140 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $609 +$490 +80%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $606 −$403 -66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$49 -32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $508 +$513 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $859 −$423 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $252 −$131 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $335 −$248 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $224 +$216 +96%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $406 −$200 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $252 +$69 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $211 +$48 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $380 −$312 -82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $711 +$888 +125%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $233 −$230 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $470 +$530 +113%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $202 +$131 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $204 −$94 -46%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $508 +$462 +91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,250 +$660 +53%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $252 +$4 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,464 +$42 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $629 −$29 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $406 +$463 +114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $405 −$126 -31%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $150 +$54 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $942 +$93 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $302 +$109 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $239 −$137 -57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $706 +$1,284 +182%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $4,065 −$632 -16%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $2,024 +$1,353 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $696 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $222 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $274 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 97¢ $93 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $182 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $204 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $148 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $3 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $31 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $28 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $158 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $12 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $388 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $277 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $18 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $1 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 18¢ $205 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $117 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $210 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $217 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $127 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $304 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $147 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $305 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win o BUY 19¢ $102 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $533 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $112 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.37 · official $209.49 (match) · 1919 history records