Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

68 0x683b…be8d sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$844 (+8%) realized +$844 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate95%19W / 1L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$504per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$200

7 days+$200

14 days+$975

30 days+$977

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+16.9%	+5.8%	100%	50%	+5.8%
≤30d	9	+18.2%	+6.9%	89%	44%	+9.3%
≤90d	18	+9.5%	-1.0%	94%	22%	+0.6%
all	20	+8.5%	-1.8%	95%	20%	-0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.8%	20%	-0.4%
10%	-11.2%	20%	-10.0%
15%	-19.8%	15%	-18.7%
20%	-27.6%	10%	-26.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$561) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +1% → late +16% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$64 vs −$202 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×6.02 per $1 lost it wins $6.02

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$844

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses19 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage108d

Avg bet$504

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 28	$592	+$199	+34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$591	+$1	+0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$917	+$419	+46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$548	+$369	+67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$360	+$188	+52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$562	−$202	-36%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 9?	Jun 10	$561	+$1	+0%
GTA VI released before June 2026?	Jun 02	$240	$0	+0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Jun 02	$318	+$1	+0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l	May 27	$560	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8?	May 09	$200	$0	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8?	May 09	$350	$0	+0%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Apr 28	$558	+$2	+0%
Rockets vs. Lakers	Apr 23	$547	+$11	+2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16?	Apr 17	$547	+$1	+0%
Lakers vs. Mavericks	Apr 07	$531	+$16	+3%
Hawks vs. Magic	Apr 03	$527	+$4	+1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?	Apr 01	$526	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on March 21?	Mar 23	$526	+$1	+0%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers	Mar 12	$525	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	92¢	$792	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	68¢	$592	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	100¢	$591	24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	93¢	$1,336	9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$917	9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$548	10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$360	10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	46¢	$360	10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$562	11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 9?	BUY No	100¢	$561	20d
GTA VI released before June 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$240	31d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$318	31d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l	BUY No	100¢	$560	34d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8?	BUY No	100¢	$200	53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 8?	BUY Yes	100¢	$350	53d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Rockets	100¢	$558	62d
Rockets vs. Lakers	BUY Lakers	98¢	$547	66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$547	74d
Lakers vs. Mavericks	BUY Mavericks	97¢	$531	83d
Hawks vs. Magic	BUY Hawks	99¢	$527	87d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$526	95d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on March 21?	BUY No	100¢	$526	100d
Timberwolves vs. Clippers	BUY Clippers	100¢	$525	108d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records