Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x683d…079c other 9 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-58%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.6% -39.0% 22% 22% -62.5%
≤30d 9 -32.6% -39.0% 22% 22% -62.5%
≤90d 9 -32.6% -39.0% 22% 22% -62.5%
all 9 -32.6% -39.0% 22% 22% -62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 22% -62.5%
10% -44.9% 22% -66.1%
15% -50.2% 22% -69.4%
20% -55.1% 22% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +289%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records