trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 100% | 0% | -6.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -5.0% |
| all | 20 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 90% | 35% | -2.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.6% | 35% | -2.0% |
| 10% | -13.7% | 15% | -11.3% |
| 15% | -22.1% | 10% | -19.9% |
| 20% | -29.7% | 5% | -27.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $2,823 | $2,808 | −$15 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 31 | $2,644 | +$82 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 15 | $2,606 | +$37 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 10 | $2,372 | +$236 | +10% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 01 | $1,544 | +$101 | +6% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 19 | $1,393 | +$151 | +11% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 04 | $300 | +$12 | +4% |
| Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $735 | +$346 | +47% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Jan 24 | $982 | +$53 | +5% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? | Jan 14 | $950 | +$32 | +3% |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Nov 03 | $939 | +$11 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 30 | $798 | +$141 | +18% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 18 | $606 | +$191 | +32% |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? | Aug 08 | $518 | +$88 | +17% |
| Will India invade Pakistan before July? | Jul 17 | $448 | +$48 | +11% |
| Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? | Jul 17 | $256 | −$110 | -43% |
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? | Apr 03 | $19 | +$2 | +10% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Mar 18 | $114 | +$9 | +8% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Feb 02 | $39 | +$1 | +2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Jan 24 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? | Jan 02 | $30 | +$18 | +61% |