Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6845…3ae6
other · 84 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$161 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$160 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$153
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses49 / 18
Open positions17
Markets (closed)67 / 84
History coverage187d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 17 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 09 $25 +$2 +9%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $25 +$7 +27%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 19 $50 +$12 +24%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Feb 05 $8 +$2 +30%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 30 $30 −$3 -8%
Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Jan 30 $30 +$28 +92%
TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $40 +$21 +52%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $55 +$16 +30%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 24 $37 −$3 -7%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? Jan 22 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Jan 21 $47 +$4 +8%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 21 $28 +$5 +16%
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press confe Jan 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conferenc Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Jan 20 $45 −$18 -40%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 20 $6 +$1 +13%
Grok 4.20 released by January 31? Jan 18 $49 +$90 +186%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jan 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 15 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 14 $45 +$8 +18%
Will Sinners win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Gold Jan 12 $25 +$6 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jan 08 $25 −$8 -31%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $20 −$14 -70%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Jan 06 $25 +$8 +31%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jan 06 $25 +$1 +4%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jan 04 $20 +$3 +14%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Outstanding Story-Rich Game in t Jan 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Will ARC Raiders win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards Jan 03 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Ste Jan 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Soundtrack in the 2025 Steam Jan 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a- Jan 03 $15 +$6 +42%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jan 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Baldur's Gate 3 win Labor of Love at the 2025 Steam Awards? Jan 02 $15 $0 +1%
Grok 4.20 released by December 31? Dec 31 $30 +$6 +22%
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Dec 31 $15 −$1 -6%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Dec 30 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Dec 30 $40 +$31 +78%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events Dec 28 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President e Dec 28 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine P Dec 28 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship? Dec 28 $34 +$39 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% +$216
world 22% −$49
politics 19% −$32
tech 17% −$5
culture 5% +$20
finance 1% +$6
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 1h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 93¢ $27 5d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 58¢ $62 87d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 115d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 115d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 47¢ $50 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 129d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes $5 131d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes $5 131d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes $10 131d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $27 135d
Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 SELL No 96¢ $58 135d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 0% -1.0%
≤30d 1 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 0% -1.0%
≤90d 6 -40.0% -45.7% 50% 33% -35.6%
all 67 +3.7% -6.2% 73% 52% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 52% -0.8%
10% -15.2% 31% -10.3%
15% -23.4% 13% -19.0%
20% -30.9% 10% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.39 · official $153.39 (match) · 191 history records