Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x6847…bc0f sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+8%) realized +$38 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 43% -2.8%
≤30d 14 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 43% -2.8%
≤90d 14 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 43% -2.8%
all 14 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 43% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 43% -2.8%
10% -27.9% 43% -12.1%
15% -34.9% 43% -20.6%
20% -41.3% 43% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$20 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $46 +$41 +90%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $22 +$24 +109%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $43 +$36 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $12 +$13 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $54 +$28 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $38 −$4 -11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $47 +$48 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $25 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $31 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $15 43h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $46 44h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $22 45h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $7 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $9 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $12 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $43 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $22 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $33 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $20 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $17 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $18 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $21 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $66 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $21 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $26 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.25 · official $54.25 (match) · 33 history records