Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6849…706b
other · 128 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$48 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage108d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 27¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 78¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Jazz vs. 76ers Jazz 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Suns vs. Magic Suns 47¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Nuggets Jazz 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Nuggets Celtics 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mavericks 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $125 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $126 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $137 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $135 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $119 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $139 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $242 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $241 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $125 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $105 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $394 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $145 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $124 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $137 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $137 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$8
politics 35% −$7
sports 5% +$62
economics 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 13d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $132 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $132 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $137 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $137 20d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $102 21d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $102 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $144 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $144 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $133 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $133 23d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 23d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $132 24d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 24d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $125 25d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $125 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $128 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 127 +4.0% -5.9% 9% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 8% -9.3%
10% -14.9% 7% -17.9%
15% -23.1% 4% -25.9%
20% -30.6% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.99 · official $11.99 (match) · 348 history records