trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +60.8% | +45.5% | 67% | 33% | +3.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +60.8% | +45.5% | 67% | 33% | +3.3% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +60.8% | +45.5% | 67% | 33% | +3.3% |
| all | 20 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 85% | 5% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 5% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 5% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 5% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 5% | -33.5% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $50 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$28 | +276% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Jan 30 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 30 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 20? | Nov 20 | $81 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 15? | Nov 15 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 9? | Nov 09 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 8? | Nov 09 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 7? | Nov 08 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 6? | Nov 06 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Robinhood say "Expense" during earnings call? | Nov 06 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | Nov 06 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $30 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $35 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Nov 05 | $35 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? | Nov 02 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $34 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Oct 26 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |