Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x684f…cef7 crypto 1473 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,454 (-3%) realized −$1,459 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate75%1098W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$331
7 days−$331
14 days−$818
30 days−$811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$351
other 4% −$512
sports 0% −$82
world 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -51.4% -56.0% 33% 33% -57.4%
≤30d 103 -47.4% -52.4% 10% 10% -53.7%
≤90d 1466 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 73% -11.7%
all 1466 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 73% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 73% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -20.2%
15% -28.4% 7% -27.9%
20% -35.5% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1098 / 368
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1466 / 1473
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$101 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 11d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 11d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 12d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $71 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.62 · official $283.90 (match) · 3500 history records