Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x6850…9eeb other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$159 (+17%) realized +$106 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 70L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day50.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$218
other 45% +$153
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +47.8% +33.7% 33% 33% +27.1%
≤30d 104 +47.8% +33.7% 33% 33% +27.1%
≤90d 104 +47.8% +33.7% 33% 33% +27.1%
all 104 +47.8% +33.7% 33% 33% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.7% 33% +27.1%
10% ← realistic here +20.9% 33% +14.9%
15% +9.2% 33% +3.8%
20% -1.5% 33% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +79% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$7 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 70
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)104 / 122
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $10 $100 +$90 (+895%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 40¢ 55¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Yes 12¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$11 +206%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$21 +413%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $7 +$39 +543%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$36 +704%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +980%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$28 +549%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 +$21 +505%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $2 +$27 +1290%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $5 +$14 +276%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$38 +744%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 +$17 +237%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$23 +441%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$32 +313%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$10 +201%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $7 +$15 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 38m
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $8 46m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $46 1h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $41 1h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2h
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 9¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $33 3h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $25 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.72 · official $46.37 · 164 history records