Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6851…42d8 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$607 (-11%) realized −$567 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$273
14 days−$473
30 days−$665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$903
crypto 17% +$107
other 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -12.5% -20.8% 58% 45% -30.8%
≤30d 77 -16.3% -24.3% 57% 44% -32.3%
≤90d 118 -21.2% -28.7% 53% 42% -25.0%
all 118 -21.2% -28.7% 53% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 42% -25.0%
10% -35.6% 28% -32.1%
15% -41.8% 22% -38.7%
20% -47.5% 17% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$33 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$567
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 56
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions8
Markets (closed)118 / 125
History coverage54d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $102 $111 +$9 (+9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 25¢ 20¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 25¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 21 $41 +$63 +154%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $48 +$14 +29%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $250 −$247 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $41 +$23 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $121 +$55 +46%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $141 −$80 -57%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $143 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $71 +$21 +30%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $138 +$67 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $86 −$70 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $39 +$27 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $87 +$64 +74%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $62 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 2¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL Virtus.pro 3¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 43¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $53 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $97 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 18h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.99 · official $121.99 (match) · 466 history records