Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6853…da0d politics 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$245 (-7%) realized −$245 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate63%167W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$191
other 19% +$20
crypto 18% −$16
sports 12% −$19
culture 5% −$20
world 3% −$15
tech 2% −$5
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.7% -29.2% 75% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 -21.7% -29.2% 75% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 -21.7% -29.2% 75% 0% -9.2%
all 265 -7.9% -16.7% 63% 28% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 28% -16.4%
10% -24.6% 18% -24.4%
15% -31.9% 12% -31.7%
20% -38.6% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses167 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)265 / 265
History coverage380d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 265 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $118 +$5 +4%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $115 +$3 +3%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $120 +$3 +2%
Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (September 29 - October 5) Oct 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29? Sep 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Turkish presid Sep 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance say "Crap" or "Shit" during remarks in NC on September 2 Sep 25 $1 $0 +33%
Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in NC on Septem Sep 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will Kimmel say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during return show on September Sep 24 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 23 $12 $0 +3%
Will Kamala Harris say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" on the Rachel Maddow Show Sep 23 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on Sep 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fox News interview on Sep 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "King" during events with UK Prime Minister on Septembe Sep 18 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump say "Women's sports" during events with UK Prime Minister o Sep 18 $1 $0 +33%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during events with UK Prime Minister o Sep 18 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during events Sep 18 $63 −$57 -89%
Will Trump say "Security" during the UK state banquet on September 17? Sep 18 $1 $0 +47%
Will Trump say "King" or "Queen" 4+ times during the UK state banquet Sep 18 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the UK state banquet on Se Sep 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Will JD Vance say Jesus during the Charlie Kirk Show on Monday Septemb Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" or "Transgender" during events with Po Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JD Vance say Assassin during the Charlie Kirk Show on Monday Sept Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 7+ times during events with Polis Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Fox & Friends appearance on Sep Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference? Sep 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump" during events with Polish president on Septembe Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Museum of the Bible speech on September 8 Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Adolescence win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Ser Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Severance win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series? Sep 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Netanyahu" during his West Virginia speech on Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his W Sep 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - July 16, 8PM ET Sep 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Catholic" or "Muslim" during Museum of the Bible speec Sep 17 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 30? Sep 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jean Smart win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Illegal" or "Illegally" during events with Polish pres Sep 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September Sep 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JD Vance say Venezuela during the Charlie Kirk Show on Monday Sep Sep 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Will JD Vance say Trans/Transgender 3+ times during the Charlie Kirk S Sep 16 $40 +$5 +13%
Will JD Vance say Charlie/Kirk 50+ times during the Charlie Kirk Show Sep 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Will JD Vance say Charlie/Kirk 25+ times during the Charlie Kirk Show Sep 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Bella Ramsey win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Sep 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Seth Rogan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Se Sep 15 $78 +$1 +1%
"Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 Sep 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will The Studio win the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series? Sep 15 $1 $0 -0%
D4vd arrested by September 30? Sep 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on September 12? Sep 14 $66 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $118 30m
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $115 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 98¢ $120 3d
Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (September 29 - October 5) BUY No 95¢ $14 264d
Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29? BUY No 99¢ $13 270d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Turkish presid SELL No 100¢ $13 273d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Turkish presid BUY No 98¢ $13 274d
Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in NC on Septem BUY No 98¢ $12 275d
Will JD Vance say "Crap" or "Shit" during remarks in NC on September 2 BUY No 75¢ $1 275d
Will Kimmel say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during return show on September SELL No 100¢ $13 275d
Will Kimmel say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during return show on September BUY No 97¢ $12 276d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse BUY No 97¢ $12 276d
Will Kamala Harris say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" on the Rachel Maddow Show SELL No 100¢ $12 276d
Will Kamala Harris say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" on the Rachel Maddow Show BUY No 97¢ $11 277d
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on BUY No 98¢ $11 278d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fox News interview on BUY No 97¢ $7 281d
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during events SELL No 10¢ $7 281d
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during events BUY No 90¢ $63 281d
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during events with UK Prime Minister o BUY Yes 60¢ $1 281d
Will Trump say "Women's sports" during events with UK Prime Minister o BUY No 75¢ $1 281d
Will Trump say "King" during events with UK Prime Minister on Septembe BUY Yes 85¢ $1 282d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 282d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the UK state banquet on Se BUY No 98¢ $58 283d
Will Trump say "Security" during the UK state banquet on September 17? BUY No 68¢ $1 283d
Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September BUY Yes 47¢ $5 283d
Will JD Vance say Trans/Transgender 3+ times during the Charlie Kirk S BUY No 89¢ $40 284d
Will JD Vance say Venezuela during the Charlie Kirk Show on Monday Sep BUY No 96¢ $17 284d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.86 · official $122.86 (match) · 701 history records