Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x6853…80f3 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+8%) realized +$53 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$144
crypto 31% −$36
sports 9% +$36
world 4% +$13
tech 1% −$14
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -28.0% -34.9% 37% 33% -12.1%
≤30d 29 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 34% -5.0%
≤90d 30 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 37% -4.2%
all 30 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 37% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 37% -4.2%
10% -35.6% 37% -13.3%
15% -41.8% 37% -21.7%
20% -47.5% 30% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$22 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage84d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 46¢ 74¢ $92 $147 +$55 (+60%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $34 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $11 $16 +$6 (+53%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $9 +$6 +66%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 +$29 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $203 +$97 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$45 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$39 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$39 +65%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 19 $144 −$144 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$18 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$51 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 03 $167 +$95 +57%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $22 +$13 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $93 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 78¢ $15 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 46¢ $9 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 37¢ $49 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $100 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $65 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 13¢ $21 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $49 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $31 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $33 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $25 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.69 · official $239.69 (match) · 84 history records