Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6854…4f67 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$8
other 25% −$9
politics 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 12% -8.2%
≤90d 16 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 12% -8.2%
all 42 -6.3% -15.2% 31% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage367d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $60 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $27 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $19 +$3 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $18 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Aug 10 $8 −$1 -10%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $16 $0 -1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $49 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $49 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $12 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $19 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $6 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $22 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $15 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $12 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $13 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $12 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records