Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6859…fb90 sports 397 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,304 (+7%) realized +$13,450 · open −$146
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%195W / 196L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,741est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,784
7 days−$4,689
14 days+$5,285
30 days+$3,320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$10,610
other 13% −$1,929
crypto 0% +$284
world 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% -22.1%
≤30d 137 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -6.1%
≤90d 263 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -2.8%
all 391 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 50% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 50% -4.3%
10% -18.2% 50% -13.5%
15% -26.1% 48% -21.8%
20% -33.4% 46% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$656) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$494 vs −$445 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$1,315
Realized+$13,450
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses195 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,741
Open positions6
Markets (closed)391 / 397
History coverage161d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $389 $479 +$90 (+23%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 59¢ 42¢ $416 $300 −$116 (-28%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $335 $232 −$103 (-31%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $99 $153 +$54 (+55%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $123 $81 −$42 (-34%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $99 $70 −$29 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $989 +$659 +67%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $421 −$304 -72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $222 +$319 +144%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $837 +$661 +79%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $771 +$382 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $769 +$655 +85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $416 −$416 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $416 +$314 +75%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $769 +$513 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $421 +$284 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $837 +$573 +68%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $777 +$669 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $478 +$335 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,849 −$1,822 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $330 +$270 +82%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $494 −$494 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $641 +$422 +66%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $225 −$222 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $812 +$671 +83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,428 −$1,378 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $769 −$769 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,406 +$1,650 +117%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $519 −$519 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,003 −$989 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $422 +$426 +101%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $487 −$481 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $779 −$769 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $713 +$566 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,693 −$3,658 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $334 +$216 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $769 −$769 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $271 −$266 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,326 −$2,308 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,133 −$358 -32%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $425 +$1,009 +238%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,544 +$1,654 +107%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $448 +$804 +180%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,000 −$989 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $760 −$752 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $746 +$593 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,187 −$2,174 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $334 −$330 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,550 +$1,467 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $337 +$1,232 +365%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $697 +$831 +119%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,415 +$387 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $416 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $117 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $989 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $421 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $94 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $111 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 55¢ $416 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $421 20h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 67¢ $112 24h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 67¢ $227 24h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 67¢ $224 24h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 67¢ $208 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $117 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $18 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $57 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $21 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $55 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $54 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $1 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $12 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $41 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $6 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $3 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,314.60 · official $1,321.65 (match) · 1328 history records