Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6860…8485 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-13%) realized −$37 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$39
14 days−$64
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$73
sports 23% −$9
crypto 22% +$29
politics 21% −$6
world 6% −$11
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.9% -42.0% 31% 31% -40.5%
≤30d 35 -20.0% -27.6% 26% 23% -32.8%
≤90d 57 -15.8% -23.8% 49% 18% -25.0%
all 58 -16.0% -24.0% 48% 17% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 17% -25.0%
10% -31.3% 14% -32.2%
15% -37.9% 14% -38.8%
20% -44.0% 12% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)58 / 70
History coverage152d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 71¢ 77¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 17¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes 22¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 33¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $31 −$26 -83%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $10 +$23 +225%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +54%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $36 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 +$23 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Japanese parliament dissolved in 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 27 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr May 27 $1 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 27 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35m
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $14 37m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $34 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 28h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 10¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA $15 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA $17 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $1 6d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Team to Take First Corner BUY Haiti 20¢ $5 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $28 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.75 · official $58.74 (match) · 130 history records