Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6861…9900 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-32%) realized −$105 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 238d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$76
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$45 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)2 / 16
History coverage238d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 21¢ 62¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+193%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austin FC win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 12m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 12m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 54m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 54m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 54m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 54m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Austin FC win on 2025-11-02? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 231d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.36 · official $185.36 (match) · 18 history records