Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6861…cf22 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$247 (+34%) realized +$235 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$53
sports 31% +$282
crypto 26% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+97.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +118.4% +97.6% 8% 8% +26.1%
≤30d 12 +118.4% +97.6% 8% 8% +26.1%
≤90d 12 +118.4% +97.6% 8% 8% +26.1%
all 12 +118.4% +97.6% 8% 8% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +97.6% 8% +26.1%
10% ← realistic here +78.7% 8% +14.1%
15% +61.4% 8% +3.0%
20% +45.6% 8% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +296% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$7 · ×43.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$235
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+899%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 −$6 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $83 −$4 -5%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $12 +$314 +2542%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 −$20 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 42m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 8¢ $2 44m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 48m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 48m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 50m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 50m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 52m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 54m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 54m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 83¢ $10 57m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 83¢ $10 57m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 59m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 77¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 74¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.03 · official $20.03 (match) · 154 history records