Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6862…8c75
sports · 82 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$55 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$272 · open −$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,332
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 37
Est. fees paid−$368
Open positions7
Markets (closed)75 / 82
History coverage17d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,883
7 days−$1,236
14 days−$2,050
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55¢ 56¢ $350 $353 +$3 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 78¢ 78¢ $350 $352 +$2 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 46¢ $400 $351 −$49 (-12%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $320 $317 −$3 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $320 $317 −$3 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 38¢ 38¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 54¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Chicago Sky 17¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins 46¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 46¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 15¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Chicago White Sox 40¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 47¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Kansas City Royals 88¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 28¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $334 +$198 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $385 +$318 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $354 −$350 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $405 −$400 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $325 −$320 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $305 −$300 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $385 −$380 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $355 −$350 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $405 +$262 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $386 +$390 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $396 +$400 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $305 −$300 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $356 −$350 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $355 +$293 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $355 −$350 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $405 −$400 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $306 −$300 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $406 −$400 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $507 −$500 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $335 +$382 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $306 +$576 +188%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $355 +$345 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $415 +$236 +57%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $355 +$345 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $426 +$338 +79%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $326 −$320 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $505 −$500 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $22 +$59 +262%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $405 +$285 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $23 −$22 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $22 −$22 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $23 −$22 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $23 −$22 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $401 −$400 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $305 −$305 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $455 −$455 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $306 +$528 +172%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $385 +$306 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $425 +$311 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 02 $355 −$355 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $415 −$415 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $356 −$356 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 02 $346 −$346 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $346 −$346 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 02 $398 −$398 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $358 −$358 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $388 −$388 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $352 +$60 +17%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $336 +$469 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$472
other 6% −$799
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $355 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $325 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $306 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $355 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $352 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $325 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $334 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $354 41h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $405 41h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $325 41h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $385 45h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $305 45h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $385 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $355 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $406 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $386 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $305 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $396 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $356 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $405 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $355 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $355 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 55¢ $405 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $306 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $406 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $507 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $335 6d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY New York Mets 50¢ $355 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $306 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 44% -21.0%
≤30d 75 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 49% -10.5%
≤90d 75 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 49% -10.5%
all 75 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 49% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 49% -10.5%
10% -18.5% 48% -19.1%
15% -26.4% 48% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 48% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,332.28 · official $2,332.28 (match) · 141 history records