Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6864…294b
other · 156 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$52,650 -57%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46,278 · open −$5,084
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30,135
Realized−$46,278
Unrealized−$5,084
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses16 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Open positions86
Markets (closed)88 / 156
History coverage16d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day177.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%
Chart Positions 86 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21,374
7 days−$32,190
14 days−$45,820
30 days−$46,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $431 $2,856 +$2,425 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $431 $2,408 +$1,977 (+459%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $431 $2,184 +$1,753 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,990 $1,997 +$7 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,898 $1,897 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $431 $1,400 +$969 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $435 $1,074 +$639 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 48¢ $85 $1,060 +$976 (+1153%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $431 $605 +$174 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $600 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $496 $500 +$4 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $497 $500 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $497 $500 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $487 $499 +$12 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $484 $494 +$9 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in July 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $463 $466 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $428 $436 +$8 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $397 $400 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $398 $400 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $379 $380 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $343 $344 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 78¢ $327 $314 −$13 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $295 $300 +$5 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in July 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $298 $300 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2,432 −$2,356 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $978 −$743 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,298 −$1,298 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $296 −$287 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $797 −$795 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $612 −$572 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $599 −$599 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $375 −$361 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $495 −$488 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $9,491 −$9,491 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $799 −$792 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2,098 −$2,094 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $905 +$695 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $299 −$97 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $299 −$97 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $300 −$197 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $300 −$198 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $295 −$195 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $597 −$382 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $758 −$757 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $386 −$280 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $396 −$70 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $825 −$825 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $565 −$561 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $733 −$620 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $841 −$813 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $387 −$387 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $397 −$397 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $900 −$890 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $794 −$792 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $393 −$187 -48%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 08 $135 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,128 −$822 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $599 −$187 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $481 −$274 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $837 −$637 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $688 −$181 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% −$41,589
politics 11% −$9,774
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13m
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 25m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 58m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 2h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 10h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $38 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $3 12h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 14h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -62.8% -66.3% 19% 4% -83.3%
≤30d 88 -54.0% -58.4% 18% 6% -79.6%
≤90d 88 -54.0% -58.4% 18% 6% -79.6%
all 88 -54.0% -58.4% 18% 6% -79.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover177.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.4% 6% -79.6%
10% -62.3% 6% -81.5%
15% ← realistic here -66.0% 5% -83.3%
20% -69.3% 5% -84.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,134.85 · official $30,144.73 (match) · 3500 history records