Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6869…ecec sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$21 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$401
7 days−$620
14 days−$496
30 days−$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$126
other 30% −$10
world 23% −$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -19.5% -27.1% 29% 29% -38.5%
≤30d 38 -22.3% -29.7% 29% 29% -31.3%
≤90d 38 -22.3% -29.7% 29% 29% -31.3%
all 38 -22.3% -29.7% 29% 29% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 29% -31.3%
10% -36.4% 26% -37.8%
15% -42.6% 26% -43.8%
20% -48.2% 24% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$46 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage8d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $65 $43 −$22 (-34%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 −$79 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $506 −$386 -76%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $121 +$15 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 +$24 +416%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $90 −$87 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$63 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$19 +122%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 +$14 +250%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$264 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $40 +$101 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $199 +$84 +42%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $117 +$133 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 32m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 33m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $81 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $14 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $202 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $137 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $121 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $119 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $6 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $8 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.47 · official $78.47 (match) · 76 history records