Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6869…0484 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,920 (-16%) realized −$5,873 · open +$953
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%42W / 88L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$1,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$228
14 days−$37
30 days−$751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$5,115
crypto 0% −$105
sports 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +716.8% +639.1% 67% 67% +6.3%
≤30d 10 +153.4% +129.3% 20% 20% -46.3%
≤90d 32 +0.9% -8.7% 12% 12% -53.1%
all 130 -6.0% -14.9% 32% 27% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 27% -28.0%
10% -23.1% 23% -34.9%
15% -30.5% 22% -41.2%
20% -37.3% 15% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$147 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$1,333
Realized−$5,873
Unrealized+$953
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses42 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage141d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 42¢ $330 $1,275 +$945 (+286%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $106 +$164 +155%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $766 −$32 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $186 +$96 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $304 −$131 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 10 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $33 −$24 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $78 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? May 10 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? May 10 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? May 10 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 10 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 07 $71 −$68 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $158 −$94 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $105 −$30 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $95 +$191 +201%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $428 +$466 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $503 −$352 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $500 −$328 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $500 −$293 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 20 $33 −$22 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $324 +$11 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $420 −$265 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $170 +$479 +282%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $500 −$316 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 15 $292 −$78 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $164 +$90 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 14 $106 +$73 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $50 −$37 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $83 +$228 +275%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $100 −$61 -60%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 11 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 11 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $51 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $189 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $100 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $133 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,332.76 · official $1,332.76 (match) · 1292 history records