Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x686c…bd35 crypto 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%80W / 75L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$162
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$13
crypto 34% +$2
other 27% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 51% +6.8%
≤30d 155 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 48% -5.2%
≤90d 155 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 48% -5.2%
all 155 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 48% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 48% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 43% -14.3%
15% -29.1% 38% -22.5%
20% -36.0% 26% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses80 / 75
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 168
History coverage12d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $44 +$7 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$3 -81%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$13 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $6 +$19 +307%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $16 +$7 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$11 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$11 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $39 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $14 +$46 +319%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $29 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $30 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.81 · official $49.81 (match) · 314 history records