Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6871…e9dc sports 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$436 (-2%) realized −$428 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 61L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days−$2,344
14 days−$2,344
30 days−$1,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,075
other 20% +$828
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.8% -13.0% 39% 39% -28.1%
≤30d 40 +6.2% -3.9% 42% 42% -20.1%
≤90d 98 +7.8% -2.5% 38% 38% -10.4%
all 98 +7.8% -2.5% 38% 38% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 38% -10.4%
10% -11.8% 38% -18.9%
15% -20.3% 38% -26.8%
20% -28.1% 36% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$232 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$428
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage44d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 22¢ 22¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-2%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Toronto Tempo 13¢ 12¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 33¢ 32¢ $73 $69 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $67 +$122 +181%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $68 +$325 +481%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $405 −$109 -27%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $404 +$221 +55%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $407 +$472 +116%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $406 −$400 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $405 +$296 +73%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 20 $361 −$355 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $404 −$400 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $72 +$320 +446%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $304 +$262 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $404 +$168 +42%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $404 +$184 +46%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 19 $299 −$295 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $407 +$601 +148%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $405 +$297 +73%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $405 −$400 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 18 $508 −$508 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-19? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-20? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $608 +$721 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $304 +$188 +62%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $557 −$550 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $202 +$218 +108%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $200 +$600 +299%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $361 +$276 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $205 +$215 +105%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 20 $206 −$205 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $152 +$673 +444%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $54 −$52 -97%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $157 −$153 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 18 $198 +$535 +270%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $232 −$230 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $189 −$188 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 22¢ $75 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Toronto Tempo 13¢ $75 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 33¢ $74 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $297 29h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $41 34h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $406 34h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $701 34h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 39¢ $361 43h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $407 43h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $404 43h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $405 43h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 17¢ $68 43h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $67 43h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $404 43h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $299 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $305 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $404 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $304 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $404 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $153 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $405 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $405 3d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 18¢ $72 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $405 3d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $407 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $304 4d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $333 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $608 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $557 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.83 · official $210.83 (match) · 331 history records