Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x687b…a490 weather 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$20 (-8%) realized +$126 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% −$25
sports 21% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+70.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +88.4% +70.5% 50% 50% +160.3%
≤30d 2 +88.4% +70.5% 50% 50% +160.3%
≤90d 2 +88.4% +70.5% 50% 50% +160.3%
all 2 +88.4% +70.5% 50% 50% +160.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.5% 50% +160.3%
10% +54.1% 50% +135.3%
15% +39.2% 50% +112.6%
20% +25.6% 50% +91.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +188% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +188% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$9 · ×8.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.93 per $1 lost it wins $8.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 20? No 36¢ 13¢ $83 $30 −$53 (-64%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 20? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 20? Yes 47¢ 12¢ $51 $12 −$39 (-76%)
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 44¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $29 +$80 +277%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.75 · official $63.31 · 8 history records