Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
68 0x687d…e28b sports 553 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,981 (+5%) realized +$9,768 · open +$1,213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%309W / 214L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$13,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$597
7 days+$216
14 days+$520
30 days+$1,482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$6,675
other 28% +$5,568
world 17% −$2,216
politics 8% +$901
tech 3% −$2,004
crypto 3% +$279
culture 1% +$229
economics 1% +$132
finance 1% +$188
weather 0% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +29.2% +16.9% 57% 38% -7.8%
≤30d 134 +18.1% +6.8% 57% 44% -5.9%
≤90d 355 +14.4% +3.5% 59% 46% -6.4%
all 523 +11.9% +1.3% 59% 46% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 46% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 37% -14.4%
15% -17.3% 28% -22.7%
20% -25.4% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$152 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$13,212
Realized+$9,768
Unrealized+$1,213
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses309 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions30
Markets (closed)523 / 553
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$363
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $2,007 $2,131 +$124 (+6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $774 $1,010 +$236 (+31%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 100¢ $974 $996 +$22 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $906 $959 +$53 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $932 $936 +$4 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $699 $874 +$175 (+25%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 73¢ 87¢ $624 $747 +$122 (+20%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 55¢ 66¢ $487 $588 +$101 (+21%)
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? No 53¢ 87¢ $320 $529 +$209 (+65%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $449 $524 +$75 (+17%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 86¢ 88¢ $470 $485 +$15 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 72¢ $376 $434 +$58 (+15%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $210 $272 +$62 (+29%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $247 $265 +$18 (+7%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $322 $245 −$77 (-24%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $231 $241 +$10 (+4%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 74¢ $159 $222 +$63 (+39%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $202 $208 +$5 (+3%)
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? No 79¢ 96¢ $156 $189 +$33 (+21%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 85¢ 81¢ $170 $162 −$8 (-5%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 80¢ 70¢ $160 $140 −$20 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $160 $132 −$28 (-18%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 64¢ 54¢ $128 $107 −$21 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $211 −$191 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $201 −$149 -74%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $184 −$157 -85%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $79 +$21 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $232 +$17 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $545 +$62 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $90 −$89 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $143 +$14 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $48 +$18 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $275 +$98 +36%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $321 −$50 -16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $118 +$9 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 +$75 +72%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 +$27 +38%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $437 +$62 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 +$124 +163%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 −$60 -40%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $163 +$128 +78%
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $997 +$15 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $160 −$71 -45%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $223 −$40 -18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $130 +$145 +112%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $123 +$26 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $78 −$70 -90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $156 +$35 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $156 +$4 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $419 −$56 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $495 −$36 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$312 +1464%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $38 −$33 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$14 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 14 $530 +$22 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $93 +$57 +61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$6 -22%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1,518 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $188 +$179 +95%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $135 +$365 +270%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1,330 +$81 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $77 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $921 −$458 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$34 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 2¢ $20 34m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 6¢ $15 35m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $146 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $55 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 7¢ $27 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $184 2h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 85¢ $332 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 64¢ $128 10h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 79¢ $103 19h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY No 80¢ $20 26h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 35h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY No 80¢ $4 35h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1 36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $154 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $4 42h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 43h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $28 44h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 84¢ $373 44h
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $271 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,212.17 · official $13,212.17 (match) · 3500 history records