Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x6880…cf03 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,439 (-24%) realized −$1,425 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2,700
other 34% −$88
sports 20% +$1,317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +66.9% +51.0% 47% 47% -37.5%
≤30d 17 +66.9% +51.0% 47% 47% -37.5%
≤90d 17 +66.9% +51.0% 47% 47% -37.5%
all 17 +66.9% +51.0% 47% 47% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.0% 47% -37.5%
10% +36.6% 47% -43.5%
15% +23.4% 47% -49.0%
20% +11.3% 35% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +170% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$400 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,186
Realized−$1,425
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $403 −$400 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$348 +340%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 +$743 +811%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 21h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $450 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $835 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2,700 4d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,186.01 · official $1,186.01 (match) · 28 history records