Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6882…c9a6
sports · 616 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$76 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$100 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses256 / 358
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)614 / 616
History coverage296d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 614 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$48
14 days+$13
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$4 +389%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$4 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $34 +$36 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$4 +48%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $17 +$2 +11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 12 $13 −$6 -44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$13 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$3 +82%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +42%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $4 +$2 +49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $17 +$5 +27%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $10 +$8 +78%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $28 +$4 +15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $1 +$7 +703%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $1 +$1 +72%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 27? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 2 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% −$193
other 22% +$166
world 2% −$58
politics 1% −$13
crypto 0% −$14
weather 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 17¢ $1 5m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 56¢ $5 5m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 48m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 57m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 3¢ $1 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $1 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 54¢ $2 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 17h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $1 17h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 17h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $70 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $34 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 32¢ $4 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $3 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $13 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -12.3% -20.7% 44% 41% +6.6%
≤30d 70 -8.3% -17.1% 43% 39% -10.7%
≤90d 280 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 36% -18.1%
all 614 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 39% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 39% -12.0%
10% -27.0% 37% -20.4%
15% -34.1% 35% -28.1%
20% -40.6% 29% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.17 · official $6.18 (match) · 1686 history records