Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6882…6f08 other 1366 markets active 9h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,857 (-3%) realized −$3,857 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%854W / 508L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$193
14 days−$734
30 days−$1,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$2,760
sports 34% −$1,216
crypto 1% −$119
world 1% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 53% -14.9%
≤30d 232 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 56% -15.4%
≤90d 575 -4.7% -13.7% 63% 59% -13.5%
all 1362 -3.2% -12.5% 63% 60% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 60% -12.7%
10% -20.8% 45% -21.1%
15% -28.5% 28% -28.7%
20% -35.5% 16% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$58 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses854 / 508
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1362 / 1366
History coverage276d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1362 Trades
no open positions (370 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $110 +$15 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$20 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 −$30 -61%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $94 −$56 -59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $154 −$135 -88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $126 +$28 +22%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $116 +$10 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$42 -41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $106 +$51 +48%
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $94 +$12 +13%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $116 −$114 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $66 +$251 +383%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $100 −$34 -34%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$29 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$4 -13%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$33 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $101 +$40 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $148 +$60 +40%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $116 +$32 +28%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $87 +$29 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +132%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $113 +$23 +20%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $101 −$63 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $110 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $111 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $91 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $19 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $19 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $49 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 68¢ $101 15h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 99¢ $25 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 79¢ $20 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17 BUY 19¢ $18 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $94 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 59¢ $304 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY 4¢ $19 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $154 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 96¢ $154 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $126 2d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $126 2d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $116 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $59 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $158 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $106 2d
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 83¢ $106 2d
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $94 2d
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $94 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $118.00 · 2461 history records