Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
68 0x6884…a325 sports 266 markets active 12h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+3%) realized +$34 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%114W / 142L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$10
14 days+$23
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$3
weather 13% +$11
crypto 7% −$10
other 3% +$12
politics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -1.5% -10.8% 41% 28% -5.2%
≤30d 224 +4.8% -5.2% 46% 37% -5.5%
≤90d 256 +2.7% -7.0% 45% 36% -8.0%
all 256 +2.7% -7.0% 45% 36% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 36% -8.0%
10% -15.9% 35% -16.8%
15% -24.1% 32% -24.9%
20% -31.5% 28% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses114 / 142
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)256 / 266
History coverage58d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 75¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 56¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$8 +189%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +271%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $8 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +63%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$26 +1290%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $4 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $2 40h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 61¢ $2 2d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 75¢ $2 2d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 26¢ $4 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 10¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 6¢ $1 3d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 24¢ $2 3d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 24¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 25¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY No 10¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 30¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.96 · official $13.86 (match) · 603 history records