Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6888…a61c
crypto · 111 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,622 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,664 · open −$800
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,408
Realized−$4,664
Unrealized−$800
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses26 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions6
Markets (closed)104 / 111
History coverage82d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 6 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,137
7 days−$1,137
14 days−$2,058
30 days−$3,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $674 $682 +$7 (+1%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $298 $291 −$7 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $250 $237 −$13 (-5%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 8¢ 8¢ $125 $118 −$8 (-6%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 22¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $780 $2 −$778 (-100%)
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko Jil Teichmann 12¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $233 $0 −$233 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 11¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $821 $0 −$821 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $752 $0 −$752 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,053 −$19 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $72 −$68 -94%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $206 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $790 −$752 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $406 +$227 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $344 +$479 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $191 −$180 -94%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $535 −$39 -7%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $159 −$156 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -97%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $200 −$100 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $132 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $176 +$187 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $183 +$233 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$28 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $111 −$40 -36%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $112 −$95 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $437 −$115 -26%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $46 −$45 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $139 −$135 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$22 +72%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -94%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $323 −$305 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $266 −$251 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $326 −$169 -52%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $998 −$871 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $290 −$25 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $246 −$233 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $206 +$147 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $350 +$1,021 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 28 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $217 −$207 -96%
World Championships: Finland vs. Great Britain May 22 $115 −$68 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$1,717
other 31% −$3,231
sports 5% −$482
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 8¢ $12 15m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 15m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $222 16m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $221 17m
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $233 20m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 34m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $83 35m
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 7¢ $96 35m
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 32¢ $97 36m
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 32¢ $161 36m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $475 36m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 8¢ $233 38m
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $357 39m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $965 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $53 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -54.1% -58.4% 20% 17% -28.4%
≤30d 99 -23.1% -30.4% 25% 24% -21.8%
≤90d 104 -23.7% -30.9% 25% 24% -23.8%
all 104 -23.7% -30.9% 25% 24% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 24% -23.8%
10% -37.5% 23% -31.1%
15% -43.6% 23% -37.7%
20% -49.1% 22% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,408.40 · official $1,428.40 · 667 history records