Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x688a…ec78 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$2
other 21% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 17 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 0% -10.1%
all 41 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage470d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $5 $0 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $38 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $12 +$1 +7%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +125%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 27 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $35 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $37 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $0 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $4 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $0 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $2 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records