Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6897…1906 crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%146W / 11L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 31 +0.6% -9.0% 94% 3% -9.4%
all 157 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses146 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage269d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $138 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $136 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? May 10 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $136 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $135 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $135 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET Apr 15 $22 −$7 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $141 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $141 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 31 $138 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 31 $138 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $137 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $139 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $138 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $137 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $137 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $112 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $135 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $141 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $141 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $140 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $140 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $140 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $140 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $139 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $139 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $138 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $138 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $138 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $137 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $137 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $136 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $136 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $135 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $135 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $135 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $14 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $22 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $141 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $139 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.14 · official $141.14 (match) · 338 history records