Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6898…6b3c crypto 436 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-5%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%244W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 40% -3.2%
≤30d 5 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 40% -3.2%
≤90d 436 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 42% -15.8%
all 436 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 42% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 42% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 25% -23.8%
15% -32.9% 17% -31.2%
20% -39.4% 10% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses244 / 192
Open positions0
Markets (closed)436 / 436
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 436 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 13 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 13 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 12 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 12 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 12 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 12 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 12 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 12 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $5 −$3 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $7 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $6 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $16 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $7 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1205 history records