Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6898…70a7 crypto 452 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$533 (-7%) realized −$522 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%176W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$57
14 days−$116
30 days−$860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$980
other 2% −$42
sports 1% −$27
world 0% −$15
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 36% -17.3%
≤30d 365 -6.8% -15.7% 41% 39% -22.5%
≤90d 448 -6.3% -15.3% 39% 37% -23.6%
all 448 -6.3% -15.3% 39% 37% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 37% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -30.9%
15% -30.8% 31% -37.6%
20% -37.6% 30% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$522
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses176 / 272
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)448 / 452
History coverage36d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 19¢ 6¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-65%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -69%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$29 +544%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$8 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$12 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$16 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 38m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 44m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 49m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $9.69 · 1106 history records