Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x689a…ab74 sports 693 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,327 (-6%) realized −$5,326 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%533W / 158L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$445est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$37
14 days+$321
30 days−$6,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$8,355
crypto 2% +$634
other 2% −$199
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.0% -13.2% 51% 49% -6.7%
≤30d 164 +3.6% -6.2% 63% 54% -35.8%
≤90d 260 +0.1% -9.5% 63% 52% -21.0%
all 691 -0.8% -10.3% 77% 32% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 32% -17.5%
10% -18.8% 21% -25.4%
15% -26.7% 15% -32.6%
20% -33.9% 11% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$115 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$5,326
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses533 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$445
Open positions2
Markets (closed)691 / 693
History coverage214d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 43¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$23 +262%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $25 $0 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $25 +$14 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$11 +57%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$21 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $277 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$43 +250%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $60 +$51 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$6 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$7 -37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$31 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$7 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $26 +$5 +21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $25 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $25 +$10 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$9 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$3 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $487 +$19 +4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 −$10 -81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $712 +$55 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $25 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $25 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $25 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $25 47h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $25 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 52¢ $24 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $25 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $25 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 80¢ $151 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 64¢ $82 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 76¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 17¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 70¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.07 · official $48.90 (match) · 1815 history records