Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x689a…779e
other · 107 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,584 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,394 · open +$1,981
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$13,763
Realized−$5,394
Unrealized+$1,981
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions60
Markets (closed)94 / 107
Avg bet$9,065
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 60 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$625
7 days+$626
14 days+$7,416
30 days−$5,394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,464 $2,466 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 18¢ 46¢ $864 $2,169 +$1,305 (+151%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 48¢ 67¢ $1,488 $2,095 +$606 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 11¢ 46¢ $411 $1,688 +$1,277 (+310%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $804 $838 +$34 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $122 $808 +$686 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $122 $744 +$622 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $122 $586 +$464 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $122 $428 +$306 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $108 $238 +$130 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $127 $209 +$82 (+65%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $384 $187 −$197 (-51%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $355 $173 −$182 (-51%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $112 $165 +$53 (+48%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $29 $139 +$110 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $29 $132 +$103 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $167 $125 −$41 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $29 $117 +$88 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $29 $94 +$65 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $29 $79 +$50 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $116 $45 −$71 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $111 $16 −$95 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $124 −$61 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $78,937 +$190 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $702 +$100 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$17 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $58 −$47 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $8,499 −$303 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,082 +$3,282 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $14,363 +$1,265 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 09 $2,484 −$2,357 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 09 $133 +$401 +301%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $321 −$275 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $298 −$202 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $46,458 +$8,627 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $34,465 −$434 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $70 +$41 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $1,159 −$733 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $270 −$16 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $143 −$133 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2,580 −$353 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $102 +$248 +243%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $6 +$133 +2308%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $30,686 −$8,688 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10,468 +$1,974 +19%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $6,872 −$837 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $14,697 −$8,727 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $662 −$639 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $686 −$668 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $21 +$33 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $29,370 +$578 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $24 +$21 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $17 +$188 +1097%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $29 +$172 +595%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,963 +$135 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $37 +$26 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $15 +$23 +154%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $8,812 −$8,778 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $17,299 −$14,594 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $82 +$891 +1083%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,003 −$918 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $843 +$1,202 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $23,563 −$13,970 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $222 −$151 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $21,227 −$18,801 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$2,926
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $43 0m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $35 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $85 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 2h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $65 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $46 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $46 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $131 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -34.4% -40.7% 29% 18% -9.0%
≤30d 94 +46.6% +32.6% 45% 30% -10.0%
≤90d 94 +46.6% +32.6% 45% 30% -10.0%
all 94 +46.6% +32.6% 45% 30% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.6% 30% -10.0%
10% +19.9% 23% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here +8.3% 21% -26.5%
20% -2.3% 20% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,762.87 · official $13,789.20 (match) · 3500 history records