Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x689a…16d0 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$134 (-30%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$33
crypto 27% −$11
other 25% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -36.0% -42.1% 42% 37% -41.8%
≤30d 19 -36.0% -42.1% 42% 37% -41.8%
≤90d 19 -36.0% -42.1% 42% 37% -41.8%
all 19 -36.0% -42.1% 42% 37% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 37% -41.8%
10% ← realistic here -47.7% 16% -47.4%
15% -52.7% 16% -52.5%
20% -57.3% 5% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $50 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $56 +$24 +43%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $31 −$17 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 84¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $30 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 95¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records