Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x689b…d218 politics 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$14
other 43% −$11
sports 6% −$35
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 102 +0.6% -8.9% 5% 4% -9.5%
all 118 -3.7% -12.9% 6% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage116d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $239 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $343 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $207 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $396 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $179 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $378 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $164 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $371 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $210 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $184 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 19m
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 14h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 14h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 17h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 17h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 22h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 22h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 42h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $28 42h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $26 11d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $220 23d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $220 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $205 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.99 · official $20.99 (match) · 341 history records