Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x689c…5061 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$2
other 34% −$1
politics 13% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.4%
all 21 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage441d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $40 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus May 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $19 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $34 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $35 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $38 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $38 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 61¢ $38 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $38 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $6 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $1 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $24 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $4 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $17 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $35 24d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $4 337d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 356d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 375d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 91¢ $5 377d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 394d
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus BUY No 96¢ $1 411d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 98¢ $19 425d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 98¢ $19 427d
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days SELL No 99¢ $21 427d
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days BUY No 99¢ $21 429d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.50 · official $38.50 (match) · 57 history records