Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x689c…2697 other 1717 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1708W / 3L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$4
sports 47% +$8
world 1% $0
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1191 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1711 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1711 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1708 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1711 / 1717
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Completed match? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Riera vs. Lollia: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Riera vs. Lollia: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 100¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Potenza vs. Oradini: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sam Ryan Ziegann vs. Stefan Seifert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Doumbia/Polmans (-1.5) vs Cabral/Miedler (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Estevez vs Rossini Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Tona vs. Lombardini: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Lesdos vs. Noel: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bass/Duncan vs. Chandrasekar/Yuzuki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ruben Lebron Puerta vs. Rafael Giotis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Wolff vs. Broek: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Cirotte vs. Papamichail: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Mesa vs Cordoba Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Villoslada vs. Rojas: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: HyperSpirit (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Torre vs. Dietrich: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Nicole Giannini vs. Prathyusha Rachapudi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Bojica vs Kovacevic Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Mujakic vs Jankanj Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Struplova/Zelnickova vs. Kladivova/Laboutkova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs. Luis Garcia Paez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Game 2: Ends in Daytime? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Completed Match: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bax vs. D'agostino: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Luca Parenti vs. Lorenzo Berto: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Guilleme vs. Ciavarella: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Saki Tange vs. Colin Sinclair: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Covato vs. Karma: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Yuna Sugiyama vs. Miyu Nishiwaki: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Zhu vs. Roh: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Dennis Eckert: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will FlyQuest qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Varaksina vs. Miyamoto: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Sawashiro vs. Kim: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Sawashiro vs. Kim: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Kusuhara vs. Matsuoka: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Chen vs. Zhu: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Callum McCowatt: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ryan Vilade: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Tsao vs. Hosogi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Edmundo Sosa: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Potenza vs. Oradini: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 9m
Riera vs. Lollia: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 19m
Riera vs. Lollia: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 21m
Sam Ryan Ziegann vs. Stefan Seifert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
Set Handicap: Doumbia/Polmans (-1.5) vs Cabral/Miedler (+1.5) BUY Doumbia/Polmans 99¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Completed match? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Set 2 Winner: Estevez vs Rossini BUY Estevez 99¢ $5 1h
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Tona vs. Lombardini: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori BUY Cobolli/Shelton 100¢ $5 2h
Lesdos vs. Noel: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 3h
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Bass/Duncan vs. Chandrasekar/Yuzuki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Ruben Lebron Puerta vs. Rafael Giotis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $4 4h
Wolff vs. Broek: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Cirotte vs. Papamichail: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Set 1 Winner: Mesa vs Cordoba BUY Cordoba 100¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6 BUY KOLESIE 99¢ $5 5h
Torre vs. Dietrich: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 5h
Nicole Giannini vs. Prathyusha Rachapudi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $5 5h
Villoslada vs. Rojas: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Set 1 Winner: Bojica vs Kovacevic BUY Bojica 100¢ $5 6h
Set 2 Winner: Mujakic vs Jankanj BUY Jankanj 100¢ $4 6h
Struplova/Zelnickova vs. Kladivova/Laboutkova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 6h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: HyperSpirit (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3.5) BUY Sashi Esport 100¢ $5 6h
Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs. Luis Garcia Paez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.43 · official $28.43 (match) · 3500 history records