Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x68a1…e226 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-14%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$4
sports 14% −$1
politics 9% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 67% -5.8%
≤30d 12 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 67% -5.8%
≤90d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 62% -10.3%
all 14 -9.5% -18.1% 57% 57% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 57% -18.8%
10% -25.9% 57% -26.5%
15% -33.1% 36% -33.6%
20% -39.6% 21% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$33 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage396d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $106 +$30 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$19 +61%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$27 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $135 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $106 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 13h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $23 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 84d
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 84d
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 84d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 396d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.50 · official $29.50 (match) · 29 history records