Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68a3…5dd5 weather 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$882 (+5%) realized +$888 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%256W / 225L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$104
14 days+$403
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$667
sports 5% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -6.2% -15.1% 66% 32% -7.5%
≤30d 256 -10.5% -19.0% 55% 29% -10.4%
≤90d 481 -4.8% -13.8% 53% 30% -5.9%
all 481 -4.8% -13.8% 53% 30% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 30% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 24% -14.9%
15% -29.6% 21% -23.1%
20% -36.5% 17% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized+$888
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses256 / 225
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions14
Markets (closed)481 / 495
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $208 $232 +$24 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? No 98¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 95¢ 94¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $24 $28 +$5 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 84¢ 86¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 97¢ 97¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $52 +$132 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $207 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $108 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $44 +$22 +51%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $206 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $85 +$4 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $32 +$9 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $88 −$86 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $45 +$54 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$11 +295%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $241 +$14 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $152 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $142 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $264 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $61 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $112 +$63 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $77 +$19 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$20 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $116 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $181 +$23 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $61 −$61 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $93 −$91 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $146 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $157 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $251 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $17 +$8 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $45 +$17 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $230 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $87 +$63 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $45 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$10 +182%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 10 $0 $0 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 20m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $2 20m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $7 22m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $2 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.07 · official $634.08 (match) · 3500 history records